Many experts have predicted a competitive spring market. In fact, everyone agrees that there's no signs of a market slowdown. If anything, we're seeing the market continue to heat up. 

 

The truth is we need more inventory. The active listings have dropped 28% from January 2021 to January 2022, compared to a 24% drop in February 2021 to February 2022. 

 

 

Existing home sales increased 13% from 2019 to 2021. 

 

 

The chart above depicts carry over inventory, from month to month, starting in August 2021 through February 2022. Our carry over inventory has decreased over the last seven months in a row.

A few things are occurring: 1. We have low inventory 2. Homes are selling 3. Anything that comes on the market, sells immediately. 

Industry insiders are updating their previous forecast with more bullish outlooks. Some are saying 2022 may go down as one of the most competitive on record. 

 

The above graph outlines how much of an increase in showings due to the lack of inventory. January showings are up 40% from the beginning of the pandemic to 2022. As the world starts to open back up and Covid comfort levels decrease, we have the potential to see new inventory hit the market. 

 

You'll notice the seasonal pattern throughout the years. This year, circled in red, we're on a higher pace compared to 2021 and just below pre pandemic statistics. As more inventory hits the market, demand will decrease and pricing could start to falter. 

During the final two weeks of February, more sellers (first time buying millennials) entered the market during the same time last year. However, with 5.8 million homes missing from the market, housing supply faces a long road to catching up to the demand. 

 

Forecasts have predicted an average of a 6% appreciation with the potential to be around 8%-10%.

 

 

Most experts agree; they don't expect these rates to last. Even with the uncertainty in the market, we'll start to trend past the 4% mark sooner rather than later. 

At today's rate, a medium priced home is about $290 per month higher than a year ago. Low inventory, surging prices and higher interest rates have first time/trade-up buyers locked in place. A word of caution for those that are trying to time the market. More than likely, you'll continue to see these upward trends, and your home will end up costing you more in the long run. 

 

Should I buy a home right now? If you buy a home now, the average equity you will see on a 5 year average is, $89,441.

We are set to potentially break some industry sales records this year. We need more inventory but properties continue to fly off the shelves faster than they can be replenished. Meanwhile, forecasters are predicting an even busier market than last year. We're currently trending higher than our pre pandemic levels on showings and listing counts. Could 2022 be one for the record books?