Ask a few people how the housing market is doing, and you’ll probably get different answers.

That’s because today’s market is moving at different speeds depending on the home’s price range, condition, location, and competition. Knowing where your property fits can affect both your pricing strategy and how quickly it sells.

Higher-Priced Home Sales Are Gaining Momentum

Recent National Association of Realtors data shows a clear divide.

Sales of homes priced below $250,000 declined approximately 2% to 3% compared with last year. Meanwhile, sales above $750,000 experienced double-digit growth.

Higher mortgage rates have reduced the number of entry-level buyers who can comfortably afford a home. Buyers at higher price points may have more flexibility because they can use larger down payments, cash, or equity from their current homes.

Lower-priced homes are still selling, but pricing and presentation have become even more important. Buyers are comparing the asking price, condition, taxes, insurance, and possible repair costs.

Why Some Homes Sell Quickly

Luxury and move-up homes once took considerably longer to sell than starter homes. That gap has narrowed.

Qualified buyers are moving quickly when an attractive, well-priced property becomes available. However, a higher price point doesn’t guarantee a fast sale. Buyers still pay close attention to condition, updates, location, taxes, and overall value.

The listings that perform best usually combine the right price, strong presentation, and marketing aimed at buyers shopping in that specific range.

What This Means for Sellers

If you’re selling an entry-level home, don’t panic. Affordable homes are still needed throughout Chicagoland. Taking care of visible maintenance, using professional photography, and pricing accurately can help your property stand out.

If you’re selling a move-up or luxury home, the market may be stronger than you expect. But buyers in these ranges are selective, so the marketing and presentation need to match the property.

Real Estate Is Still Local

National statistics provide context, but they can’t predict how a particular home will perform in St. Charles, Geneva, Batavia, South Elgin, or another community.

Even within Kane County and DuPage County, demand can change based on neighborhood, school district, property type, taxes, updates, and available competition.

Bottom Line

The housing market isn’t moving at one speed. Entry-level, move-up, and luxury homes are experiencing different levels of demand.

If you’re considering selling in Kane County, DuPage County, or the Fox Valley, I can show you where your home fits and help you build a pricing and marketing strategy around what buyers are actually doing.

Small Home Repairs You Shouldn’t Ignore

Most homeowners don’t intentionally neglect maintenance. We simply get used to the little quirks—the loose handle, slow drain, cracked caulk, or door that doesn’t close properly.

Unfortunately, small problems rarely fix themselves. Taking 15 minutes to walk through your home can help you catch inexpensive repairs before they become costly ones.

Grab a flashlight, notepad, and screwdriver, and check these four areas.

1. Bathrooms and Kitchens

Even a small leak can eventually cause mold, damaged cabinets, or rotted flooring.

• Run each faucet and check underneath the sink for moisture, stains, or warped wood.
• Gently check whether your toilets move or rock at the base.
• Inspect the caulk around tubs, showers, sinks, and backsplashes.
• Look for dripping faucets and slow drains.

Water problems are usually much less expensive when caught early.

2. Doors and Windows

Open and close every door and window to make sure everything operates properly.

• Tighten loose hinges, knobs, and handles.
• Replace worn weatherstripping around exterior doors.
• Make sure windows open, close, and lock correctly.
• Adjust strike plates if you have to lift or pull a door to lock it.
• Repair torn or damaged screens.

Most of these repairs take only a few minutes and can help prevent unnecessary wear and energy loss.

3. Heating, Cooling, and Ventilation

Your heating and cooling system is one of the most expensive pieces of equipment in your home. Keeping it clean allows it to operate more efficiently.

• Check and replace dirty furnace filters.
• Vacuum dust from return vents and registers.
• Make sure bathroom exhaust fans are working.
• Check the exterior dryer vent while the dryer is running.
• Remove any visible lint buildup around the dryer vent.
• Schedule routine HVAC maintenance when needed.

A little preventive maintenance can help extend the life of your equipment and reduce energy costs.

4. Around the Exterior

The outside of your home is its first defense against water, pests, and weather.

• Check gutters for clogs, leaks, or overflowing water.
• Look for gaps around windows, doors, and utility lines.
• Make sure the soil slopes away from the foundation.
• Watch for peeling paint, loose trim, and damaged siding.
• Inspect the foundation for new or growing cracks.
• Trim bushes and tree branches away from the siding and roof.

Don’t Wait on the Little Things

If you find a loose screw, tighten it. If the caulk is cracked, replace it. If something leaks, sticks, or doesn’t work properly, take care of it before the problem gets worse.

Staying on top of small repairs helps protect your home, avoid larger expenses, and keep everything working as it should.

If you need a reliable handyman, I’m always happy to share a few trusted recommendations.

When was the last time someone gave you an honest, professional opinion of what your house is worth?

I’m not talking about an automated online estimate. I mean a value based on your home’s condition, improvements, location, neighborhood, and the homes buyers are actually purchasing around you.

For many homeowners, it’s been years.

If you’ve thought about moving but today’s home prices and mortgage rates have caused you to put those plans on hold, it may be time to revisit the numbers. You could be in a much stronger position than you realize.

Your Home May Be Worth More Than You Think

Home values have changed considerably over the past five to ten years. At the same time, every mortgage payment you’ve made has likely reduced what you owe.

The difference between your home’s current value and your remaining mortgage balance is your equity.

For example, if your house could sell for $500,000 and you owe $200,000, you have approximately $300,000 in gross equity before selling expenses.

According to Cotality’s latest homeowner-equity report, the average homeowner with a mortgage has approximately $310,500 in equity.

That doesn’t mean every homeowner has that exact amount. Your equity depends on when you purchased, what you paid, your remaining mortgage balance, the improvements you’ve made, and what buyers would pay for the property today.

But it does show why it’s worth finding out your actual number.

Your Equity Could Change the Math

I completely understand why homeowners with low mortgage rates are reluctant to move. Giving up a 3% or 4% rate for a higher one is a legitimate concern.

But the interest rate isn’t the only number that matters.

If you’ve built substantial equity, you wouldn’t be starting your next purchase from scratch. That money could become the down payment on your next home and reduce how much you need to finance.

A higher rate on a smaller loan may be more manageable than you expect.

Before deciding that moving isn’t affordable, it makes sense to look at the entire picture:

• What could your current home realistically sell for?
• How much do you still owe?
• What would you likely net after selling expenses?
• How much could you put down on your next property?
• What would the new monthly payment actually be?

Until you know those numbers, it’s difficult to know whether staying or moving is the better decision.

What Could You Do with Your Equity?

Your equity can create several options, depending on your plans and financial situation.

Put More Down on Your Next Home

A larger down payment means borrowing less. That can lower your monthly principal and interest payment and may eliminate private mortgage insurance.

It could also allow you to consider a home that fits your needs without financing the entire difference between the two properties.

Buy Your Next Home with Cash

This isn’t realistic for everyone, but it happens more often than many people realize—especially when someone is downsizing or moving to a less expensive area.

Cash buyers accounted for 26% of existing-home purchases in July 2026, according to the National Association of Realtors. Equity from a previous home is one reason repeat buyers may be able to purchase without financing.

Make Your Current Home Work Better

Maybe you like your neighborhood, school district, and location but your house no longer works for your lifestyle.

In that case, renovating may make more sense than moving. Depending on your finances, equity may give you access to funds for a remodeled kitchen, first-floor bedroom, home office, finished basement, or another improvement.

Borrowing against your home carries costs and risks, so this is something to discuss with a qualified lender or financial professional before making a decision.

Create Flexibility for Your Next Chapter

Equity may also make downsizing, relocating, retiring, or purchasing a multigenerational home more realistic.

It won’t make every market challenge disappear, but it can give you options you may not have realized were available.

An Online Estimate Isn’t the Whole Story

Automated valuation websites can be a useful starting point, but they haven’t walked through your house.

They may not know that you replaced the roof, remodeled the kitchen, finished the basement, added a bathroom, or maintained your property better than nearby homes. They also may not account for differences between neighborhoods, school districts, lot locations, or even two sides of the same street.

A professional home-equity assessment looks beyond a computer-generated number. It considers your home’s features and condition along with recent sales, current competition, buyer activity, and local market trends.

That gives you a more realistic range—not a promise or an inflated number designed to win your business.

What This Means for Chicagoland Homeowners

Home values can vary widely throughout Kane County, DuPage County, and the Fox Valley.

The market for a home in St. Charles may be different from Geneva, Batavia, South Elgin, Elgin, or West Chicago. Value can also change considerably based on the neighborhood, school district, price range, updates, and property type.

That’s why your neighbor’s sale doesn’t automatically determine what your house is worth.

Your home deserves its own evaluation.

Bottom Line

If it has been a few years since you’ve had a professional look at your home’s value, now may be a good time to update it.

You don’t have to be ready to sell, and there shouldn’t be any pressure attached to the conversation. Sometimes, knowing what your home is worth simply helps you understand your choices.

I can prepare a complimentary Home Equity Assessment showing what your property may sell for, how much equity you may have, and what that could mean for your next move.

You may discover that the move you assumed wasn’t possible deserves a second look.

If you’ve heard that the number of homes for sale isn’t growing as quickly as it was, that’s true. But it doesn’t mean buyers are suddenly running out of options.

Inventory growth has slowed considerably, but homes are still being added to the market. And here in the Midwest, the inventory picture is actually stronger than the national headlines may suggest.

Inventory Growth Has Slowed—Not Stopped

According to Realtor.com’s July 2026 housing report, the number of active listings increased 2.1% compared with both June and July of last year.

That’s a much slower annual increase than we saw earlier in the housing-market recovery. But the important thing to remember is that inventory is still growing.

Nationally, there were approximately 1.13 million active listings in July. That gave buyers more choices than they had a year ago—even if the improvement wasn’t as dramatic as it had been in previous months.

Inventory growth has also remained fairly steady recently. That may be a sign the slowdown is beginning to stabilize rather than heading toward a major decline.

The Midwest Is Outperforming the National Market

Real estate is always local, and this is where the national numbers can be misleading.

While active inventory increased 2.1% nationwide in July, the Midwest posted a much stronger 9.3% year-over-year increase. New listings in the Midwest also rose 3.2% compared with last year.

That doesn’t mean every neighborhood in Kane County, DuPage County, or the Fox Valley suddenly has plenty of inventory. Certain communities, property types, and price ranges remain competitive.

But overall, buyers in our area may have more opportunities than the national numbers alone would suggest.

Inventory Has Come a Long Way Since 2021

Today’s market looks very different from the severe housing shortage buyers faced a few years ago.

Active inventory has now increased year over year consistently since November 2023. Realtor.com also reported that the market remained above 1.1 million active listings for several consecutive weeks this summer—a level not sustained since 2019.

National inventory is still below pre-pandemic norms, but the gap has narrowed considerably. July’s active-listing count was approximately 9% below July 2019, according to Realtor.com.

We aren’t completely back to normal, but we’re much closer than we were during the low-inventory years of 2021 and 2022.

How Mortgage Rates Affect the Number of Homes for Sale

Mortgage rates play a complicated role in housing inventory.

When rates stay elevated, some buyers step back or take longer to make a decision. Homes may remain available longer, allowing the total number of active listings to build. That can give the buyers who remain in the market more time and negotiating room.

Higher rates can also discourage some homeowners from selling because they don’t want to give up the low mortgage rate on their current home. So, higher rates don’t automatically mean a rush of new listings.

The real effect comes from the balance between new homes entering the market and how quickly buyers purchase them.

Realtor.com currently forecasts mortgage rates to average approximately 6.3% in 2026 and projects the number of existing homes for sale to finish the year 3.6% higher than in 2025. View Realtor.com’s updated 2026 forecast.

What More Inventory Means for Buyers

When more homes remain on the market, buyers may benefit from:

• More properties to compare
• More time to make a thoughtful decision
• Less pressure to waive important protections
• Greater potential to negotiate on price
• Better opportunities to request closing-cost credits or repairs

That doesn’t mean every home will be negotiable. A well-priced property in a desirable area can still attract multiple offers.

But compared with the market a few years ago, many buyers now have more breathing room.

Don’t Let National Headlines Determine Your Strategy

A national inventory report can help explain the overall direction of the market, but it can’t tell you how many homes are available in St. Charles, Geneva, Batavia, South Elgin, or another specific community.

Even within the same town, conditions can change based on the price range, property type, school district, and neighborhood.

That’s why the best approach is to look at the actual competition in the areas where you want to buy—not assume the national market applies equally everywhere.

Bottom Line

Inventory growth has slowed, but it hasn’t stopped. Nationally, buyers had more homes to choose from in July than they did a year earlier, and inventory growth in the Midwest was considerably stronger than the national average.

If you’re thinking about buying in Kane County, DuPage County, or the Fox Valley, you may have more options—and more negotiating room—than you realize. Let’s look at what’s currently available and build a strategy around the market you’re actually shopping in.

August 19, 2026

Waiting for Mortgage Rates To Drop? Here’s What Buyers Should Know

I talk with a lot of potential buyers who are putting their plans on hold for the same reason: they’re waiting for mortgage rates to come down.

I completely understand. Even a modest decline can improve your monthly payment and buying power. But if you’re waiting for rates to fall dramatically before making a move, it’s important to understand why that may not happen anytime soon.

One of the biggest reasons comes down to something most buyers have probably never heard of: the mortgage-rate spread.

Mortgage Rates and the 10-Year Treasury

Mortgage rates don’t move independently. They generally follow the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury, which rises and falls based on inflation, economic conditions, investor expectations, and other market forces.

They don’t move in perfect sync every day, but they’ve followed the same general direction for decades.

The difference between the 10-year Treasury yield and the typical 30-year mortgage rate is called the spread.

Historically, that spread has generally been around 1.6 to 1.8 percentage points. When it grows wider, mortgage rates can climb even if Treasury yields don’t move much. When it narrows, mortgage rates can improve without a dramatic change in the broader economy.

Why the Spread Matters Right Now

During the uncertainty of 2023, the spread widened to unusually high levels. That helped push mortgage rates much higher than the 10-year Treasury yield alone would have suggested.

The encouraging news is that the spread has narrowed substantially since then. Recent market analysis placed it near 2%, much closer to its historical range. That improvement has helped keep mortgage rates from moving back toward the 7%–8% levels buyers experienced previously. HousingWire’s mortgage-spread analysis illustrates how meaningful that difference has been.

For perspective, Freddie Mac reported the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.58% in late July 2026. Its weekly survey is based on actual loan applications submitted through lenders across the country. Freddie Mac mortgage-rate data

The Good News—and the Trade-Off

The narrowing spread is one reason mortgage rates aren’t higher than they are today. That’s the good news.

The trade-off is that much of the improvement we could reasonably expect from the spread returning to normal may have already occurred. For rates to fall substantially from here, we would likely need the 10-year Treasury yield to decline as well.

That could happen if inflation cools, the economy slows, or investors become more cautious. But no one can reliably predict when that will happen or how far rates will fall.

That’s why I don’t recommend building an entire homebuying plan around a rate forecast.

Focus on the Numbers You Can Control

Instead of waiting for the perfect interest rate, start by looking at the complete picture:

• What monthly payment fits comfortably within your budget?
• How much cash will you need for the down payment and closing costs?
• Are sellers offering closing-cost credits or other concessions?
• Could a temporary or permanent rate buydown make sense?
• Would refinancing later be worthwhile if rates eventually decline?
• What homes are currently available in your preferred area and price range?

The interest rate is important, but it’s only one part of the decision. The price you pay, seller concessions, property taxes, insurance, competition, and your personal timeline can matter just as much.

What This Means for Chicagoland Buyers

Conditions vary considerably between communities in Kane County, DuPage County, and throughout the Fox Valley. Some homes still attract immediate competition, while others give buyers more time and negotiating room.

Waiting for a lower rate could save money if rates fall—but it could also mean facing higher prices or more competition later. The better strategy is to understand what you can afford today and decide whether the available homes and terms make sense for you.

Bottom Line

Mortgage rates may ease, but buyers shouldn’t assume a dramatic decline is just around the corner. The improving mortgage-rate spread has already helped keep rates lower than they otherwise might have been.

If you’re considering buying, talk with a knowledgeable local lender about your payment options. Then let’s look at what’s available in Kane County, DuPage County, or the Fox Valley and determine whether moving now—or waiting—makes the most sense for you.

For years, a lot of would-be homebuyers have worried about the same thing. How do you compete with big investors who can swoop in, pay cash, and snap up the houses you want?

Well, worry a little less. Because right now, those big investors aren’t buying up the market. They’re backing out of it.

Investors Are Buying Fewer Homes Than They Have in Years

According to Redfin, investor home purchases just fell to their lowest level since 2020 – when the start of the pandemic temporarily caused pretty much all homebuying to pull way back. Before that, you’d have to go all the way back to 2016 to find a time when investors bought this few homes (see graph below):

Why the step back? Two big reasons.

First, Washington passed a housing law that takes aim at large institutional investors. To be clear, these mega investors were never as big a part of the market as the headlines made it sound. They’ve always made up a relatively small slice of housing pie. But the law still targeted the largest ones, and it worked fast. According to Thom Malone, Principal Economist at Cotality:

“When Washington announced its intention to curb institutional investors’ homebuying, the market reacted. . . Cotality data shows that investment by mega investors who own 1,000 or more properties retracted almost instantly.”

Second, the housing market has cooled. Price growth has slowed in much of the country, and in some markets, prices are dipping. That makes the math a lot less appealing for investors betting on quick gains. Lance Lambert, CEO of ResiClub, explains:

“Ever since rates spiked and the Pandemic Housing Boom fizzled out in spring 2022, institutional single-family rental (SFR) operators have pulled way back from buying up homes on the resale market—the math just isn’t as appealing right now. Home prices and rents are no longer ripping, holding costs (property taxes and insurance) have jumped, capital markets have shifted their attention elsewhere, and elevated materials prices make renovations expensive.”

They’re Not Just Buying Less – They’re Selling More

This is the part most people miss. Big investors aren’t just slowing down their purchases. Data from Parcl Labs and ResiClub shows the largest institutional investors are now selling more homes than they’re buying – and that gap is growing these past 4 quarters (see graph below):

Every one of those homes goes right back into the market for buyers like you. And since big investors tend to own homes at the lower end of the price range, a lot of what they’re selling is exactly the kind of home first-time buyers are looking for. As Malone puts it:

“. . . this sudden dropoff in institutional investment is a signal to first-time homebuyers that there’s an opening.”

Less competition from deep-pocketed buyers. More homes hitting the market. And many of them at prices that work for a first purchase. That’s a shift that works in your favor.

Bottom Line

Big investors are stepping back, and they're adding homes to the market as they go. If you've been waiting for a better shot at buying, this could be it. Connect with a local agent to find out what's popping up in your area. You may have more options than you think.

KCM - August 2026

Remember how exciting it was to buy your first place? It felt like crossing a long-awaited finish line. It gave you a place to build your life. Maybe it’s where you lived when you got married. Or where you welcomed a child or a pet into the family.

But that was just the beginning.

For most people, your first house was never meant to be your forever home. It’s a stepping stone for what comes next.

And if your life looks different today than it did when you got the keys, you’re not stuck. Moving may be more realistic than you think.

Starter Home Inventory Is Still Relatively Low

If you’ve been wondering whether now is the right time to move up, here’s something worth knowing. Starter homes remain one of the hardest types of homes to find. And that’s good news if you’re thinking about selling your first place.

Historically, we haven’t been building enough homes for first-time buyers. And even though homebuilders have shifted more attention toward smaller, entry-level homes lately, the Census shows there’s a long way to go to re-build supply (see graph below):

That means your current house is in demand – and that’s a dream scenario for sellers. But that’s only half the story. You also need somewhere to go.

There Are More Move-Up Homes on the Market

Here’s where this gets interesting. While the supply of starter homes remains tight (the green line), data from Redfin shows that the number of homes for sale has been climbing overall (the blue line):

As Nadia Evangelou, Principal Economist and Director of Real Estate Research at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), explains:

“Too much of the inventory available today remains concentrated at higher price points, leaving a shortage of options for entry-level and middle-income buyers.”

That means you may have more choices for your move up than you’d expect. Whether you’re hoping for another bedroom, a home office, a bigger backyard, or simply more room for this next stage of life, today’s market may finally be giving you the chance to find it.

At the same time, your current house may be exactly what someone else has been looking for because homes like yours are still in short supply. That’s a unique advantage for move-up buyers. And it could help you sell for a stronger price. As Zillow says:

“Starter home value appreciation has outpaced other types of homes nationally, mostly because they’re so in demand.”

Your Biggest Advantage May Be Your Equity

Here’s the cherry on top. There’s one more thing your first home has been doing behind the scenes, and that’s building equity. Every mortgage payment you’ve made and every year your home’s value has grown has quietly increased your ownership stake in your house.

According to Cotality, the average homeowner with a mortgage has $295k in equity built up. While your number may be different, once you sell, it could become the down payment on your next home or help reduce the amount you need to borrow at today’s rates.

Put it all together and your move up becomes a lot more realistic than you think:

• The house you’re selling is in demand.

• The house you’re buying may be easier to find.

• And the equity you’ve built can help bridge the gap between the two.

Your first home did exactly what it was supposed to do. It gave you a place to start.

Now, it may be the thing that helps you take the next step.

Bottom Line

Your first home was never meant to be your forever home. It was meant to help you build a life and build the financial foundation for whatever came next.

If your current home no longer fits the life you're living today, connect with an agent. You may be closer to your next chapter than you realize.

You’ve probably heard that home prices are cooling off. And that’s true – nationally. But zoom in on individual markets across the country, and the picture looks completely different depending on where you are.

Some areas are still seeing solid price growth. Others have gone flat. A few have actually dipped slightly negative. So, what’s causing all of that variation? 

It All Comes Down to Inventory

Here’s the simple version:

1. When there are more homes for sale, buyers have options.

2. More options, means less competition.

3. Less competition means sellers can’t push prices as high.

On the flip side, when inventory is tight, buyers are competing over a small pool of homes, and that pushes prices up.

That dynamic is playing out right now in a really visible way across the country. 

Markets where inventory has climbed back to, or above, normal pre-pandemic levels are seeing prices flatten or fall slightly. Markets where inventory is still well below those 2019 benchmarks are still seeing prices rise. As Lance Lambert, CEO of ResiClub, puts it:

“Home prices are still climbing a little year-over-year in many regions where active inventory remains well below pre-pandemic 2019 levels, such as pockets of the Northeast and Midwest.

In contrast, some pockets in states like Texas, Florida, and Colorado — where active inventory exceeds pre-pandemic 2019 levels by a solid clip — are seeing modest home price pullbacks or flat pricing.”

The Maps Say It All 

Take a look at where inventory stands today compared to 2019. In most places (the states in gray below), inventory still falls short of where we were back then. And that’s exactly why prices are climbing, albeit moderately, in the vast majority of states.

But you’re probably more interested in where prices are falling a bit, since that’s what is making headlines. So, let’s prove out how much inventory affects prices in those spots.

According to Realtor.com, 15 states and Washington, D.C. are now back above pre-pandemic inventory levels, and some by a wide margin (see the orange in the map below):

Now, let’s look at the latest Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) data to see what’s happened to home prices in those same states over the past year (again, you’ll want to focus on the orange in the next map). 

See how those line up pretty closely with the areas seeing more homes for sale today?

The overlap isn’t a coincidence. It’s cause and effect. 

The national average of 1.7% price growth is accurate, but it’s an average of two very different stories happening at the same time – the few areas experiencing mild declines and the overwhelming majority that are still seeing prices rise.

What This Means If You’re Buying or Selling 

If you’re a buyer, the market you’re shopping in matters a lot right now. In places like Texas, Colorado, or Florida, you may have real negotiating power – more choices, less competition, and sellers who are more motivated to make a deal. In tighter markets like much of the Northeast, you’re still likely facing a lot of competition.

If you’re a seller, pricing strategy is everything. In markets where inventory has risen, overpricing is one of the fastest ways to linger on the market and eventually sell for less than you would have with the right price from day one. In markets where inventory is still low, you’re in a strong spot, but getting your price right still matters if you want to attract serious buyers quickly. Either way, that’s where a local real estate agent earns their keep.

Bottom Line

When it comes to prices, where you are matters more than ever right now, and a local real estate agent is the best person to help you make sense of it.

Reach out to a local real estate agent today and work together to build a plan that fits your market.

KCM - July 2026

If the first half of this year has left you feeling stuck, you’re not the only one. Mortgage rates stayed higher than people wanted. Affordability remained tight. And uncertainty overseas added another layer of pressure nobody saw coming.

That’s why so many people are asking the same question: Will the second half of the year be any better for the housing market?

While nobody has a crystal ball, there are a few encouraging signs things could start moving in a better direction. Here’s what to watch.

Mortgage Rates Could Be Near a Turning Point 

One of the biggest reasons mortgage rates haven’t come down yet is inflation. And higher energy prices and uncertainty overseas are at least part of the reason inflation is still elevated. The encouraging news?

Oil prices have already started coming back down.

That may not sound like it has much to do with buying a home. But historically, mortgage rates and oil prices tend to move in the same direction.

Take a look at the graph below. Generally, they rise and fall together. Both went up in February when the conflict began. While there’s been some volatility lately, experts at the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) say oil prices are forecast to come down. And since oil prices have been on an overall downward trend lately, mortgage rates could come down too:

It’s too soon to say exactly when that will happen (or by how much they’ll fall), but if energy prices go down, inflation cools off, and tensions overseas ease, mortgage rates could come down in the second half of the year.

And that’s good news for anyone thinking about moving. The first half of the year tested everyone’s patience. The second half may finally reward it.

Home Prices Could Pick Back Up

A lot of people want home prices to fall too. But that’s not what most forecasts show.

While price trends are going to vary by area, and some places are seeing mild declines, experts still expect home prices to net positive this year at the national level.

In fact, they’re projecting prices will rise by an average of 2.3% in 2026 (see graph below):

What does that mean for you? Right now, Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA)data shows prices are up about 1.7% nationally year-over-year. The average forecast for all of 2026? 2.3%.

Based on those projections, home price growth would have to pick up a bit during the second half of the year. Nothing dramatic, just enough to finish the year around that projected 2.3% gain.

Here’s why that’s possible.

The number of homes for sale has grown, but that growth may be starting to slow down. And if rates improve, more buyers could jump back into the market. More buyers competing could put modest upward pressure on prices, especially if inventory’s not growing as fast.

That’s why buyers shouldn’t assume waiting will guarantee a lower price later. And for sellers, that’s great news if you’ve been worried about your home’s value.

More Homes Are Expected To Sell

If you’ve been wondering why the housing market has felt quieter lately, you’re not imagining it. Home sales have been slower than many experts expected. But that doesn’t mean people have stopped wanting to move.

A lot of people still want or need to make a change. They’ve just been waiting for more certainty, better affordability, or a clearer read on where the market is headed. And early signs show that may be on the horizon. 

If rates ease and confidence improves, more people may finally move. As Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist at First American, explains:

“Overall, we expect pent-up demand to continue emerging gradually. But the pace of recovery will vary significantly across markets and will depend on the path of rates, labor market conditions and inventory growth.” 

Based on the latest forecasts, to hit the number of sales expected this year, here’s what would have to happen. The second half of the year would need to outperform the first in sales (see graph below):

In fact, each month for the rest of 2026 would have to come close to matching the best month we’ve had so far this year (May). That’s a sign the experts are calling for more momentum headed into the second half.

More people will finally make their move happen – and you’ve got the chance to be one of them.

Bottom Line

The second half of the year probably won't be perfect. But it could be better.

Mortgage rates may ease. Home sales could pick up. And prices are expected to continue rising at a healthier, more sustainable pace. If you've been waiting for signs of progress, this is it.

If you want to understand what these forecasts mean for your plans and what’s happening in your local market, connect with an agent.

The Housing Market Is Stronger Than You Think in 2026 | Why Buyers & Sellers Shouldn't Wait